Week Comentary – The Arabica coffee maturity May/11 ended with 760 points lower on the week

The Arabica coffee maturity May/11 ended with 760 points lower on the week working in the range of 2.060 points, making the minimum at 260,55 and maximum at 281.15, closing
quoted at 268.60 on Friday, with 280 points positive. After work primarily in an uptrend in the previous week, the coffee price this week performed on a relative correction movement
this week. Making the maximum at the first session, at 281.15, strong sales volume was noted, whereupon, the grain widely followed the negative trend in foreign markets. Breaking the
support close to the 268.50 levels, where hit a soft double bottom in early sessions, spec sales were clearly noted, taking quickly the commodity to the 40 days moving average at
265.60. Without missing a bearish breath, the breaks of this moving average (a factor not seen since October 2010), sharp stops sales volume led to a 25 days low at 260.55. With
industries defense industry and new purchase specs, a motion of appreciation led back to the 268,50 levels, which closed the week quoted at 268.60. According to Cecafé, March (from
01st to 24th) coffee shipments totalized 1.592.760 bags, an increase of 9,0% compared to the previous month.

A moderated arbitrage volume was seen this week as: U/U between 17.00 and 21.00 under and U/Z between 19.00 and 23.50 under.

The coffee futures in New York closed 760 points down. On Monday, the market opened strong with high and reached the first major resistance at 281.15 cents. This move was not followed and then we observe a realization throughout the week and a decline of 2060 points, to 260.55 cents. Next week we believe in further recovery in prices since the close of Friday stood at 268.60 cents, above the average of 40 days. Major support at 266.00 cents and then at 260.55 cents and main resistance at 274.00 cents and then at 280.00 base mar11.