Week Comentary – The Arabica coffee maturity May/11 ended with 160 points higher

The Arabica coffee maturity May/11 ended with 160 points higher on the week working in the range of 2.445 points, making the minimum at 272,20 and maximum at 296.65, closing
quoted at 274.40 on Friday, with 615 points negative.

In week marked by the April option expires, the coffee price has worked with extreme volatility. Starting the week with francuptrend, the breaks of the 280.00 resistance prompted strong purchase specs, recording a double top at 281.85. Without losing this trend, the commodity broke the maximum after maximum, scoring in the next session a new 13 years high at 13, at 296.65, totaling over 2,000 points high.

At these levels, sales volumes were noted, when, perceived strong purchase liquidation, the grain began a sharp correction, which when broke the 290.00 support, stops activations led to a new level, primarily at 285.00 / 280.00 and then, with no purchases scale, the minimum of the week at 272.20, which closed the high gap. With some purchase defense, the coffee closed the week quoted at 274,40. On today´s session has delivered 28 notices, totalizing during the period 275 notices.

According to Cecafé, March (from 01st to 10th) coffee shipments totalized 321.264 bags, an increase of 66,9% compared to the previous month.

The coffee futures in New York closed up 160 points. The move this week confirmed the appointment of another job with a strong high that new highs were reached within a well
defined channel. After reaching the maximum of 296.65 cents mai11 basis, we observed a strong technical correction low and a retreat to 272.20 cents. Next week we believe in further
recovery in prices. Major support at 272.20 cents and then at 270.00 cents and main resistance at 275.00 cents and then at 280.00 base mar11.

A moderated arbitrage volume was seen this week as: K/K between -10.00 and -3.00, U/U between 17.50 and 22.00 under and U/Z between 17.80 and 22.30 under.