Usda – Prevê safra de café do Brasil em 52,40 milhões de sacas de 60 kg

Usda – Brazil Coffee Annual – Crop 2015/16

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
POLICY
Required Report – public distribution

Date: 5/7/2015
GAIN Report Number: BR15003
Brazil
Coffee Annual

Coffee

Approved By:
Nicolas Rubio, Agricultural Attaché

Prepared By:
Sergio Barros, Agricultural Specialist

Report Highlights:
ATO/Sao Paulo forecasts the Brazilian coffee production
for Marketing Year (MY) 2015/16 (July-June) at 52.40 million 60-kg bags, up 2
percent relative to MY 2014/15.  The forecast for lower production for
robusta coffee is expected to be offset by higher arabica tree yields in the
upcoming season.  Coffee exports for MY 2015/16 are forecast at 33.3
million bags, down 7 percent compared to the previous MY, due to likely lower
exportable supplies.  Carry-over stocks are forecast at 4.29 million bags,
as a result of the expected tight supply.
 

Commodities
Coffee, Green

Production
The Agricultural Trade Office Sao Paulo (ATO) forecasts the
marketing year (MY) 2015/2016 (July- June) Brazilian coffee production at 52.4
million bags (60 kilograms per bag), green equivalent, a 2 percent increase
compared to MY 2014/15.

Post conducted field trips to major coffee producing areas (Minas Gerais,
Espirito Santo, and Sao Paulo) to observe vegetative development, cherry set,
and fruit formation to assess the 2015 crop.  Information was also
collected from government sources, state secretariats of agriculture, growers’
associations, cooperatives, and traders.

Arabica trees are forecast to produce 38 million bags in MY 2015/16, up 3.8
million bags compared to the previous season. Overall, good blossoming in
September/October 2014 in major producing regions and good weather conditions
during October/November 2014 through March/April 2015, except for a dry
spell  in  January 2015,  contributed  to  the 
physiological  development  of the  coffee trees,  thus
resulting in expected better yields compared to 2014.  In fact, the MY
2014/15 crop was undermined by irregular rainfall and drought, especially in the
states of Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo.  In addition, steady and strong
prices in 2014 also allowed good crop management which has supported reasonable
cherry setting and development.

However, Robusta production in MY 2015/16 is expected to decrease to 14.4
million bags, down 2.6 million bags from the previous MY, especially due to
lower agricultural yields in Espirito Santo as a result of a prolonged dry spell
and above average temperatures during the summer months.  In addition,
Espirito Santo has also faced shortage of water resources, limiting the use of
irrigation in coffee plantations which are fairly common in that state. 
Expected lower production in the aforementioned state should be partially offset
by expected higher Robusta production in Rondonia due to favorable weather
conditions.

Harvest in the robusta producing regions started in March/April, whereas
Arabica coffee harvest should start mainly in May.  It is worth noting that
4 to 5 million of washed arabica coffee is likely to be harvested in 2015 as
Brazil gained some market share from Colombian and Central American coffee
beans.

ATO/Sao Paulo’s estimate for the MY 2014/15 coffee crop remains unchanged at
51.2 million bags (60 kilograms per bag), green equivalent.  According to
industry sources, over 80 percent of the Brazilian 2014/15 crop has already been
marketed.

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