REFLECTION: Estimation or potential ?? “Coffee Harvest in Brazil may be up to 62 million bags”:

The coffee business has evolved significantly in recent years in structural, technological, marketing and major advances in cup quality and productivity, reflecting the synergy between the links of the chain, always aiming to ensure the satisfaction of the client, our eternal challenge.  Therefore the importance of the balance between quality, availability, consistency,  and the perceived  and conquered value.

Recognizably, the trading companies participating in this market, contributed, contribute and can contribute to the success of the coffee chain; with their management models, new forms of negotiation, exchange of products, future sales, rewarding quality and foster produce increasingly with respect to social and environmental issues, through numerous programs for encouraging good agricultural practices.

However, are sometimes disseminated in the media, merchant’s testimonials about coffee crop predictions, which can cause serious problems, generating many questions.

Because these declarations do not always come followed by the methodologies used, allowing the reader a clear analysis of the construction of the data, these result in a very large margin of interpretation.

Regardless of being a close prediction of the reality or not, the fact is that we need to have the knowledge of how the survey was done. For example: What was the survey period? It was just after the flooring? How much of Arabica coffee? How much Robusta coffee? The previous forecasts were confirmed? In which regions in Brazil the research was done? How many properties were visited? These have a history of participation in research? What’s the area size? Crops are irrigated or not?

These answers are important in order to minimize the use of unconfirmed data in our planning, because the harvest ending in 2015, received numerous predictions and mostly of them fell short of the expected by the companies.

Looking ahead, we will take care of our growers by providing them more detailed forecasts and if possible registering them in notary office, allowing revisions if necessary, so that they can make sales decisions or not, minimizing its risks.

Climate uncertainties are bringing for the national coffee production a new component that is the temperature increase of the last seasons (winter and spring). Here hover new uncertainties: what this could affect the harvest in 2016? We have another dry spell in January and February? The El Nino weather phenomenon exists? We will be reminded at the Climate Conference (COP 21), next month in Paris?

Unfortunately we do not have research that can ensure us if we damage or not. However effective they are our management in crops, we can not know if our production will be impaired.

What we can say is that our brothers from Espírito Santo state, growers of Robusta and Arabic, are having serious problems with drought.

How are the other regions?

Finally, the goal here is not to disagree with the numbers, but the way that the coffee crop forecasts i has been presented.

Crop estimates without the availability to the knowledge of the methodology used, with technical emplacements, endanger a whole chain of agribusiness, and may harm, the most important link that is the producer.

Take an ATTITUDE with it ! Let’s think about it!

Francisco Sérgio de Assis
President of the Cerrado Mineiro Coffee Growers Federation
Cerrado Mineiro Region – Designation of Origin