Week comentary Coffee – Hencorp Commcor 16 de abril de 2010

The Arabica coffee maturity Jul/10 ended with 370 points lower on the week working in the range of 525 points, making the minimum at 130,70 and maximum at 135.95, closing quoted at 130.80 on Friday, with 260 points negative. After reached the maximum early in this Monday, the coffee price since then, under strong selling pressure, began a sharp downward movement, which follows the euro\’s depreciation against the dollar. In subsequent sessions, when broke the 40-day moving average at 135.40, a strong activation of stops was noted, making on today\’s session, after some oscillation, the minimum of 31 days at 130.70. The negative technical today settlement makes us the idea of trying to market new lows, where now works
with the objective at 130.00. According to GCA (Green Coffee Association), the green coffee stocks showed an increase of 136,550 bags, totalizing 4.583.256 bags.

Newsweek

Colombia
Coffee exports fell 33 percent last month from March 2009, Colombia’s National Federation of Coffee Growers said last week. The dollar fell as much as 1.3 percent against a basket of six currencies including the euro and yen. The 24-contract Standard & Poor’s GSCI commodity
index gained as much as 1 percent.

There are reports from Colombia of “scarcity and problems with quality,” said Rodrigo Costa, a vice president of institutional sales at Newedge USA LLC in New York. “The dollar is getting weaker, this puts the macroeconomic picture a little more friendly to markets as well.”
World coffee demand is likely to outstrip supply “in coming months,” the International Coffee Organization said today in a report.

Production in the year from Oct. 1 may fall to 120 million to 122 million bags, down about 4.8 percent from the previous year, the Londonbased group said.

-DJ US Mar Green Coffee Stocks Up 136,550 Bags To 4.583M Bags
Total exchange
and non-exchange Difference
Mar 31 Feb 28
Total New York 1,350,427 1,368,379 -17,952
Total New Orleans 1,357,112 1,169,160 187,952
Total Jacksonville 181,000 194,000 -13,000
Total Miami 259,122 285,823 -26,701
Total Houston 712,667 707,063 5,604
Total Laredo 89,466 76,900 12,566
Total San Francisco 289,659 303,583 -13,924
Total Los Angeles 0 0 0
Total Norfolk 184,000 170,000 14,000
Total Port Everglades 0 0 0
Total Philadelphia 2,700 2,000 700
Total Seattle/Tacoma 58,051 62,673 -4,622
Total Los Angeles/Long Beach 91,638 98,388 -6,750

Arbitrage

The coffee market worked this week pressured by position liquidation, testing the 130.00 where today broke and make the minimum at 129.00. reaching supported by industry. Arbitrations ranged Set / Set of -14.90 to -16.50; Sep / Dec -16.50 to -17.50; Nov / Dec -15.00 to -16.50
below.